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Wednesday Night Salon
#1338 24 Oct Page 2
24 October 2007
Lately, we have spent a lot of time agonizing over the political scene in this country. So much so, that it appears to us we have been neglecting many international news items and issues, so this Wednesday, appropriately United Nations Day , we propose to look at some of (it is hardly likely we’ll get to all) the topics below.
While we wrestle with the possibility of an election in Canada, there appears to be a never-ending stream of election outcomes, not to mention political manoeuvering in other countries. How many people paid attention to the results from Poland (we admit that when we were paying attention, we always found the twins a bit creepy), or to the singularly mean-spirited Swiss People’s Party campaign in Switzerland that resulted in important gains for the SVP which, besides its opposition to immigrants, wants to keep Switzerland out of the European Union?
In Russia, things have suddenly become more complicated with the news that Mikhail Gorbachev has been elected head of a new political movement founded, he said, to help bring democratic principles to Russia , a challenging undertaking given Mr. Putin’s recent moves to assure his succession will toe his line. Oh well, if Mr. Gorbachev’s new party goes nowhere, perhaps he can take solace in his designation as a Hero of the Environment (in itself, this designation has a faintly Soviet ring to it) by TIME
Meanwhile, almost as nobody was looking, there’s a newly announced leadership lineup in China that “modestly enhances the authority of President Hu Jintao”.
Next week, Argentina will vote to replace current President Nestor Kirchner, probably with his wife who, described as the ‘Argentine Hillary‘, sounds a great deal more qualified that the former first ladies of Argentina whose attempts to succeed their president husbands have been pretty disastrous. Is there a feminine of caudillo?
Kenya will have elections in December; the Parliament is dissolved amid forecasts of a close race. Although the rate of growth last year was back to the 1981 level (this is good news), inflation, corruption, lack of jobs and high crime rate plague the country.
Meanwhile in Pakistan, the return of Benazir Bhutto to lead her party in contesting the January elections has already precipitated violence and, sadly, there’s surely more to come.
Good news from Africa for once. The first winner of the Mo Ibrahim award for leadership in Africa was announced. It is Joaquim Chissano, former President of Mozambique and currently UN special envoy to peace talks between the Ugandan government and Lord’s Resistance Army rebels. While there is much debate about the effectiveness (not to mention morality - it does appear to be a sophisticated form of bribery) of the prize in encouraging honesty among African leaders, if it can encourage even 2 or 3 leaders to do the right thing, it can’t be totally bad
And then there’s the flare-up between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurd separatists (PPK) that could turn very, very ugly, despite international efforts to get things back on track
Reverting to some of last week’s topics, we would point to Jacques Clément’s predictions that the US dollar would slide against the euro to $1.43 (it did it on Friday) and that oil would be at $90/bbl (see Comments) It remains to be seen whether the Loonie will reach $1.05 - it dropped back to $1.02 today, but we have a way to go until year-end.
No mention of emerging markets last week, but a subsequent piece in MarketWatch suggesting that we could see an emerging markets bubble brought this response from WN’s favorite EM expert “More money will flow into EM, in search of better performance, [and] that could lead eventually to a bubble, but we are not at that stage yet. Still time to invest in EM and enjoy the run; too early to take profits.”
We are also intrigued by mention on the news tonight that the Caisse plans to invest in Indian real estate for the first time and may spend up to C$1.6 billion ($1.7 billion) there in the next five years .
Bruce Kippen’s predictions regarding the Alberta royalties dispute look seems accurate - we’ll find out on Wednesday Night (”Albertans will find out Wednesday night how the province will act on a government report that recommended hiking the royalty rates charged to energy companies”) and this could mean a provincial election. So, we are back to the topic where we started - elections.
Postscript on the Alberta royalties topic:
Alberta’s largest labour organization is threatening to launch an election-style campaign aimed at punishing the governing provincial Conservatives if Premier Ed Stelmach scraps a government-commissioned panel’s proposal to raise oil and gas royalties. Alberta Federation of Labour president Gil McGowan says he believes the premier will institute a “watered-down” version of the Alberta Royalty Review Panel’s proposal of a 20-per-cent increase in total royalties worth roughly $2 billion per year, if he doesn’t outright reject it. Last week Mr. Stelmach said Alberta’s current royalty regime has created “one of the most successful economies on earth.” He has also said he will not allow oil and gas companies to bully him into making a decision on royalties. The issue has ignited a political firestorm in a province that opinion polls show largely favours the review panel’s recommendations. It reached a head recently when hundreds of energy workers nearly came to blows with industry representatives following a rally at the provincial legislature.
The industry has made almost-daily threats to trim billions worth of investments and eliminate thousands of jobs if the royalty panel’s recommendations are followed.
(RCI Cyberjournal Oct. 23)
We encourage you to join us in investing in yet another diversified, possibly highly volatile Wednesday Night.
In a sense, Cuba is a paradox. As has become obvious in Florida, expatriate Cubans have demonstrated their traditional entrepreneurial traits while their homeland, under the leadership of Fidel Castro, exhibits its dictatorial, communist style of government dating back to its cold war relationship with the U.S.S.R. Positive effects of the post-Batista era include universal free access to food, education and medical care, development of medical and agricultural expertise. On the negative side, Cubans live with ration cards and a very low-income level, and the country is in desperate need of investment capital. Meantime, the success of those who have succeeded in escaping to the United States is proof that their entrepreneurial spirit remains intact, though suppressed in their native land. With the Cold War long ended, Geopolitics dictate the buying-off of the failing Cuban leadership and the resumption of trade between the U.S. and Cuba, which would also help neutralize the increasingly rapid spread of the Hugo Chavez effect on Central and South America. As logical as this solution might appear, any U.S. political party favouring such a move would inevitably lose its political support in Florida where the politically powerful Cuban exiles and their progeny retain a virulent hatred for Castro and opposition to any accommodation with that regime.
But that would require statesmanship as opposed to political brinkmanship
The Blackwater Investigation
When is a mercenary a security guard? Probably when he is accorded that title. It is perhaps the memory of the Minutemen defeating the British Redcoats in the U.S. War of Independence that inspires the Americans to go this route, but is more likely the advantages of hiring (27,000) independent rifle operators, including the savings in not having to pay lifelong benefits, the avoidance of established rules of engagement, or the fact that Blackwater casualties are not counted in with those of the military. These “security guards” are accountable to no government for their deeds or methods used.
It’s not about cost, it’s about being effective
Turkey and the Kurds
With a population of over seventy million spread over a territory of close to eight hundred thousand kilometres, on two continents, Turkey, a secular Islamic state and important military power, is an important ally for the U.S., the E.E.U., as well as for NATO. As the growth of Islamism increases the importance of secular Turkey to the Western World, the evolution of several scenarios around the Mediterranean make this relationship simultaneously more important and more precarious. According to one serious analysis, Turkey is beginning to take a role more independent of the U.S. and less dependent on the E.U. It is making strategic alliances with Iran and Israel, another factor in the apparent diminution of U.S. influence in the Mediterranean basin. In other views, Turkey has failed to take advantage of several windows of opportunity and is of decreasing importance.
The Kurds are a generally peaceful people numbering some 35 million who lack an autonomous homeland (the only nation that did not receive a country under the terms of the Treaty of Versailles). The Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan (PKK) is currently attempting to establish the country of Kurdistan by carving out a territory from existing parts of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Armenia, attacking Turkish territory and killing Turkish soldiers. Understandably, Turkey wishes to respond by raiding Northern Iraq. Although it never happened, the U.S. had planned on invading Iraq simultaneously through Kuwait from the south and Turkey from the north. Had they joined in the war in Iraq, committing their real military power in central Iraq, Turkey might have had a somewhat free hand to pursue the PKK in northern Iraq.
In balancing the equation, it must also be remembered that there are important recently discovered oil fields in northern Iraq.
Turkey and the EU
A second problematic area is Turkey’s wish to join the European Union, eventually as a full member. Accession is contingent on deep political and human rights reforms and the EU position is that until those are in place, Turkey is excluded from consideration. In the unlikely event that effective reform were implemented, and membership considered, the high Turkish birth rate coupled with the increasing number of Turks living and working within the EU would undoubtedly constitute a threat to the continued existence of that union. As the most rapidly reproducing country in Europe it has been predicted that the Turkish population will surpass that of all European countries within fifteen years. It may well be that Turkey would be accorded certain special commercial and other privileges, falling short of full EU membership. On another plane, it is wise to ask whether Turkey can be considered to share in the cultural, philosophical and political aspirations of the member countries of the EU? And if not, would it be an appropriate member of the alliance?
Iran
Iran is the current immediate source of concern, very dangerous, very calculating. It has youth, eighty percent literacy, education, resources, - everything required to establish an empire. As for its development of nuclear weapons, the unasked question is why the United Nations International Atomic Energy Commission should not become involved. Nobody should be against Iran’s development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, as long as it is controlled by the international community and devoted to peaceful purposes. As for Russia, whether or not one agrees that Putin is monstrous and murderous, or merely calculating and ambitious to a dangerous degree, Iran serves as a fortuitous counterbalance to the U.S. It is believed that when Russia sold nuclear material to Iran, it was not considered possible that Iranian scientists could convert to the military nuclear technology as rapidly has happened.
There is another dimension to the Russia-Iran alliance, which is the memory of the failure of the Afghanistan incursion. No matter how popular Putin may be, the Russian people will not countenance another military adventure in the Middle East.
The situation now hangs in the balance and the outcome depends on whether Russia will disengage from Iran, or whether the U.S. will move – or sanction moves – against Iran to eliminate the nuclear capability.
Quebec Citizenship
Pauline Marois’ conditions (immigrants required to have an “appropriate” working knowledge of French to be sworn in as Québec citizens, those who fail to develop their French-language skills would not be allowed to hold public office, raise funds for a party or petition the National Assembly with a grievance) for Québec citizenship is a no-brainer.
It is very unlikely today that a candidate who does not speak French could be elected to the Québec Assembly [or would think of running]. However, surely, the person who gets the most support from his or her constituents is by definition, their choice to represent them.
If a deaf mute runs for office and is elected, that is whom the people want and who is to deny their right to choose?
What is interesting, however, is a device through which the third-ranking party in the province succeeds in capturing the headlines over several days. Some Wednesday Nighters see Pauline Marois as the representative of the dying older generation, but others suggest that religious tribalism is part of the national psyche and has now been replaced by those members of the political classes and intelligentsia who advocate State control over the lives of the average Québecois.
Although the media have often emphasized the most virulent presentations to the Bouchard-Taylor Commission, tolerance for immigrants and religious groups is reasonably high throughout the province. One interesting note on the Commission hearings indicates that the levels of tolerance are much lower in regions closer to Montreal.
Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN
Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN
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Feb. 1, 2007 - Hérouxville town council issues its immigrant behaviour manifesto that echoes around the world and sparks the "reasonable accommodation" controversy in Quebec.
Saturday 27 October 2007 UNITED STATES
The U.S. has rejected the comparison made earlier by Russian President Vladimir Putin between the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and the present conflict involving the U.S. plan to install an anti-missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Mr. Putin said it's the "same situation" as when the Soviet Union deployed missiles in Cuba. The U.S. state department dismissed the comparison, saying that the installation of a defensive anti-missile system aimed at prevent attacks from countries like Iran is different from the installation of Soviet missiles tipped with nuclear arms in Cuba. The discovery of the installation of Soviet missiles in Cuba led to a 13-day standoff that caused fears of a nuclear war. The standoff eventually ended in a military compromise.
Thursday 25 October 2007 NOORDWIJK: NATO PROMISES AFGHANISTAN REINFORCEMENTS
NATO officials says that as many as nine member states have promised to increase their troop commitments in Afghanistan, four of them offering to allow them to serve in the south, the heartland of the Taliban insurgency. The commitments were made at an informal NATO defence ministers conference near Amsterdam. The Dutch defence minister, Eimert van Middelkoop, said that "...there is no such thing as a free ride to peace and security...," an apparent reference to the refusal by Germany, Spain and Italy to allow their forces to fight in the south. Canada was represented by Peter MacKay, who asked several individual allies to join the fight in the south by providing support elements like helicopters and military trainers for the Afghan National Army. He met the French minister on Wednesday and will confer with his German counterpart Franz Josef Jun on Thursday before proceeding to Germany for further consultations. The Canadian Press reports that Mr. MacKay is lobbying for helicopters because the Canadian contingent doesn't have any. Canada wants to acquire American 16 Ch-47 helicopters, an order that could be delayed because on Wednesday the U.S. told Boeing to resubmit its bid to supply the Chinooks to the American military.
Turkey as a Regional Power Stratfor analysis
TURKEY
The military launched another air attack into the Kurdish region of northeastern Iraq. An Iraqi security official said that the warplanes attacked the mountainous village of Shiranish Islam, 25 kilometres northeast of the northern town of Danuk. The source said the village was heavily bombed and material damage was done but that there were no casualties. Turkish security sources said earlier on Wednesday that the warplanes had flown a series of missions 20 kilometres into Iraq and that 300 soldiers had advance by 10 kilometres into that country. The Turks are intent upon suppressing Kurdish insurgents of the Kurdish Workers Party. The Iraqi and U.S. governments have advised Turkey against military action, worrying that it could destabilize the entire region. The Iraqi government has declared the PKK a terrorist group and ordered it out of Iraq.
Saturday 27 October 2007 In Quebec, it's `nous' vs. them
MONTREAL–The man everyone had come to see strode confidently past the cameras to take his seat in a packed room in Trois-Rivières, his boldness and self-assurance a marked contrast to the twitchiness evident when he first stepped into the media spotlight a year ago.
...But before Hérouxville Councillor André Drouin could have his say, another man stood to address the Bouchard-Taylor commission, an itinerant inquiry criss-crossing Quebec to hear from the public on "reasonable accommodations" of religious and ethnic minorities.
Thursday 25 October 2007 TROIS-RIVIÈRES: LOCAL POLITICIAN FEARS RIGHTS CHARTER
A town councillor from the small Quebec town of Hérouxville which helped launch a debate about accommodating minorities claims the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms is a tool to destroy the country. André Drouin made the claim at the latest in a series of public hearings ordered by the provincial government to debate public accommodations for cultural minorities. One of the events leading to that decision was the town's declaration of civic duties which forbids such things as stoning to death, burning with acid and genital mutilation as contrary to Quebec values. There are no immigrants in the town located halfway between Montreal and Quebec City. Mr. Drouin told the hearing that citizens must seize control of their lives from courts, the only other solution being for the largely French-speaking province to secede.
:Saturday 27 October 2007 OTTAWA:
The Canadian dollar rose briefly to US$1.04 on Friday, its highest rate in trading against its U.S. counterpart in 33 years. The Canadian currency closed at US$103.93. The loonie is nearing its historic high of $US106.14, reached more than 50 years ago. The value of the loonie is being driven by higher Canadian interest rates, Canada's blazing energy sector and takeovers of Canadian firms which require the acquisition of Canadian dollars. Last weekend, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge warned that the Canadian dollar's ascent has been too rapid and wasn't supported by "fundamentals." The dollar then dropped a cent-and-a-half on Monday but regained the lost ground on Tuesday.
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