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Wednesday Night #1354 — with Misha Crnobrnja
While we cannot avoid keeping a weather eye on the ever-changing political winds to the south, we are happy to turn to developments in Europe and elsewhere this week.
In the company of one of our favorite (and only Balkan) experts, Misha Crnobrnja, former ambassador, author, banker, economist, professor of European Integrations and Economy of Transition, we are bound to have an enlightening evening. Misha - Former Ambassador of the Former Yugoslavia to the Former European Community, and author of “The Yugoslav Drama” - is now the Vice Dean of the Centre for Advanced European Studies and Research (CAESAR) of the University of Novi Sad in Belgrade
With recent developments in Serbia and the threatened declaration of Kosovo’s independence, Misha is that rara avis - knowlegeable observer and analyst, who imbues his topics with passion. Few of us will forget the wonderful evening spent in his company last February when he and Tom Windmuller explored such questions as the existence of a European identity, the Balkans as emerging economies, Russia’s role as an economic power and the encouraging comment that “Despite the cost of the Iraq war, the U.S. economy is actually a bright spot”.
And Lo!, a year may have passed, the sands (and ice floes) shifted slightly, but the topics remain.
Aforementioned Serbia and Kosovo are very much with us.
The European identity is no better defined, and while France has now “reclaimed its place at the heart of Europe” by ratifying the Lisbon Treaty, President Sarkozy said on Sunday the 27-member European Union now had to define clearly what its goals were. Will the new Treaty, which virtually replaces the discredited constitution, solve all the problems? Not according to Christopher Booker of The Telegraph (Europe’s parliaments rush into impotence).
Russia appears more threatening this year than last, although exactly a year ago, Vladimir Putin was accusing the U.S. of attempting to establish a uni-polar world Now as he steps down (though hardly away), in last Friday’s speech on Russian strategy, while pointing to the country’s ever-strengthening economy, he renewed attacks on NATO and to a lesser degree on free trade and investments that cloak grabs for natural resources. Somehow, we don’t think he was talking about China’s Africa policy. Although we have not read the entire text, we suspect the Arctic featured in his thinking.
For lively and informative views on the Russian election and backroom power struggles, we recommend Reuters Operation Successor: Russia’s 2008 elections
The U.S. economy has not evolved as predicted. A year ago there was no talk of subprime mortgages, ABCPs, nor much about sovereign wealth funds. A few cyclical mavens spoke of a healthy “correction”. Certainly not the only-partially-veiled gloom of the G7 finance ministers’ statement that “In the United States, output and employment growth have slowed considerably and risks have become more skewed to the downside,” diplospeak for things are getting really tough.
No doubt the Bush Economic Stimulus package will be considered in this context.
We are absolutely delighted to have Misha with us and invite you to help us celebrate his annual visit.
Sunday 17 February 2008 Albanian triumph, Serb anger as Kosovo secedes
Diana & David Nicholson
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PRISTINA -- Kosovo Albanians will proclaim independence from Serbia on Sunday, ending a long chapter in the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia but cementing a bitter ethnic frontline in the Balkans.
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Statistics Canada reports that sales for manufacturing sector fell to their lowest level in three years in December. The agency says sales amounted to $48.6 billion, a drop of 3.4 per cent from November. The drop is mainly due to the closure of several auto plants. The chief economist for J.P. Morgan Securities Canada, Ted Carmichael, explains that the effect on Canadian manufacturers of the slowdown in the U.S. has been more rapid than foreseen and that therefore the perspective of a recession in Canada have increased.
Serbia & Kosovo
2007 saw the resurgence of a long-dormant issue: independence for Serbia’s breakaway province of Kosovo. The tiny region is a key pressure point on the fault line between Russia and the West.
Wednesday-Night.com on Serbia & Kosovo
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(WSJ) Let’s Avoid Another Kosovo […]The 2009 Bush e-Budget
From The Economist print edition
George Bush’s fiscal plan will set off an epic fight
APART from its record-breaking size—over $3 trillion, for the first time ever—the most memorable novelty of George Bush’s budget proposal was the method he used to submit it to Congress. On February 4th Mr Bush held up a tablet PC and showed off his 2009 e-budget. “It saves paper, it saves trees, it saves money. I think it’s the first budget submitted electronically,” he noted. All the easier for the Democrats to drag it to the recycling bin.
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South Africa – No Decoupling Here - September 24, 2008
South Africa – No Decoupling Here - September 24, 2008
It wasn't supposed to be this way. Sure, by mid-2007 everyone was expecting the U.S. economy to slow. But commodity producers like South Africa were supposed to be immune - the so-called "decoupling" hypothesis. Past issues | his WN page
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